For the second election cycle in a row, Florida is playing a big role in choosing the Republican nominee for president.
But the state's real importance may be as the biggest, most important swing state in the general election battle with President Obama this fall.
In 2008, John McCain lost the state to Mr. Obama by just three percentage points. In 2004, George W. Bush won it over John Kerry by about the same amount. And of course, in 2000, Al Gore famously lost the state by only a handful of votes to Mr. Bush.
Four years ago, Mr. Obama's strength was in the southeast, around Miami, and in the counties around Orlando, Tampa and Tallahassee. Mr. McCain -- like many Republicans before him -- did well in the Panhandle.
How important is Florida? When Jim Messina, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, laid out his five "paths" to re-election in December, he called Florida "the easiest way to 270 electoral votes" for the Democrats.
Not that the Democrats think winning in Florida in November will be easy. In fact, four of the five scenarios by Mr. Messina assume that Mr. Obama loses the state. But winning it -- and it's 29 electoral votes -- would allow Mr. Obama to lose some other states while still winning the election.
No comments:
Post a Comment