Tuesday, January 31, 2012
32% of Votes Counted
With 32% of votes counted in Florida GOP primary: Romney 50%, Gingrich 29%, Santorum 12%, Paul 7%
Romney Holding at 52%
With 10% of votes counted in Florida GOP primary: Romney 52%, Gingrich 26%, Santorum 12%, Paul 8%
At Less than 1% of Votes counted...Romney is at 52%
Primary Results
 | Mitt Romney | 99,131 | 52.1% | — | |
 | Newt Gingrich | 49,551 | 26.1 | — | |
 | Rick Santorum | 22,524 | 11.8 | — | |
 | Ron Paul | 14,514 | 7.6 | — | |
Exit Polls: Urban Voters
Another first for Florida -- it's the first early nominating state to have primary voters living in major urban centers.
Florida is the fourth most densely populated state in the nation, and most primary voters in the Sunshine State hail from urban and suburban areas. Early exit polls results showed that nearly 3 in 10 Republican primary voters in Florida live in cities of 50,000 or more, and almost 6 in 10 were from the suburbs.
In South Carolina and New Hampshire, only about 1 in 10 primary voters came from cities with populations over 50,000, and in Iowa, just over 1 in 5 primary voters came from urban areas.
The Florida Delegation
There are 50 delegates at stake in today's primary, and all of them will be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Given that a new Republican National Committee rule prohibits states that vote before April -- except for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada -- from awarding their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, you might ask why Florida's delegates aren't awarded proportionally.
The RNC already penalized Florida for moving its primary into January, taking away half the state's delegates. And, apparently, the RNC cannot punish a state more than once. So Florida decided that since they were free from any further delegate fines, to give all its delegates to the primary's victor.
There is still a chance that Florida's delegate allocation will be proportional after all. The RNC could challenge the state's winner-take-all status at the party convention in August.
In any case, currently, Newt Gingrich is leading the delegate race with 23 delegates, closely followed by Mitt Romney at 21. Rick Santorum has 13, Ron Paul has 3 and erstwhile candidate Jon Hunstman has 2.
Florida Remains a Key Battleground
For the second election cycle in a row, Florida is playing a big role in choosing the Republican nominee for president.
But the state's real importance may be as the biggest, most important swing state in the general election battle with President Obama this fall.
In 2008, John McCain lost the state to Mr. Obama by just three percentage points. In 2004, George W. Bush won it over John Kerry by about the same amount. And of course, in 2000, Al Gore famously lost the state by only a handful of votes to Mr. Bush.
Four years ago, Mr. Obama's strength was in the southeast, around Miami, and in the counties around Orlando, Tampa and Tallahassee. Mr. McCain -- like many Republicans before him -- did well in the Panhandle.
How important is Florida? When Jim Messina, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, laid out his five "paths" to re-election in December, he called Florida "the easiest way to 270 electoral votes" for the Democrats.
Not that the Democrats think winning in Florida in November will be easy. In fact, four of the five scenarios by Mr. Messina assume that Mr. Obama loses the state. But winning it -- and it's 29 electoral votes -- would allow Mr. Obama to lose some other states while still winning the election.
Hispanic Turnout Increasing Rapidly in Florida
Although this does not qualify as a major surprise given the state's changing demographics, the increased rate of Hispanic participation in the Florida Republican primary is nevertheless impressive.
This year, according to early exit polls, 15 percent of voters described themselves as Hispanic. By contrast, the percentage was just 5 percent in the Republican primary in 1988. And it was just 7 percent in 2000, even though George W. Bush, who won the primary that year, was considered to have considerable strength among Hispanic Americans.
'Atheist Republicans' for Paul
TAMPA, Fla. -- Voting at this polling location in the neighborhood of Town 'N Country was very slow earlier Tuesday. Now, there are a few people trickling in to vote after work, but it is still quiet.
Three young professionals stopped for an exit interview of sorts all voted for Mr. Paul. They described themselves using words not heard often on the campaign trail: "atheist Republicans."
The atheists, Tegan Matteo, 27, and Erik Steckler, 28, were not in the most upbeat moods about voting tonight. "Politicians are all narcissists," Ms. Matteo, a teacher, said.
Dr. Steckler, her husband, a radiologist, added: "Sociopathic narcissists."
But they admitted that they felt it was their duty to vote anyway.
"It's important," Dr. Steckler said. "It would be ignorant of us not to participate. We obviously can't say who decides to run. But it's up to us to make our vote heard. Even if your candidate doesn't have a chance at winning, you can indirectly influence decisions that way."
The couple said that they understood that a lot of people consider Mr. Paul's libertarian ideas "out there," but in his defense, Dr. Steckler said, "they're not like 'moon base' out there," a dig at Mr. Gingrich, who has advocated the development of a lunar colony while stumping in Florida.
Another voter, Adam Hardman, 30, a lawyer, said he has gotten all of his information about this race from the debates, and that's why he voted for Mr. Paul. "I just really like the policies he stands for."
Exit Polls: Who Is the More Empathetic?
While Mr. Romney won the battle with Mr. Gingrich in Florida over which candidate would be most likely to win in November, it's a closer call for voters as to which one best understands the problems of average Americans.
More than half, according to these early exit results, say Mr. Romney is the most electable candidate, far ahead of the number that say Mr. Gingrich is. But fewer, about a third, say Mr. Romney is the most empathetic candidate, compared with just over a quarter who instead cite Mr. Gingrich.
Exit Polls: Abortion
Florida's Republican primary voters are clearly anti-abortion rights - akin to voters in South Carolina. About two-thirds of Florida's Republican voters say they believe abortion should be illegal in either most cases or all cases. About one-third feel that abortion should be mostly or always legal.
South Carolina's voters expressed similar attitudes with 64 percent preferring that abortion be largely illegal and 35 percent expressing support for abortion's being mostly legal.
Florida Primary...0 of 6796 Precints
Still a few more hours to go until vote counting and reporting...stay tuned! Winner takes all 50 delegates!
Half of early voters in Florida backed Romney, survey shows
More than a third of Florida Republican primary voters have already voted for their preferred presidential candidate, and just over half of those voters cast their ballot for Mitt Romney, according to a new survey.
A total of 36 percent of Florida GOP voters said they have already voted through absentee ballot or early voting, according to a poll from the American Research Group, conducted January 29-30. Among those voters, 51 percent backed former Massachusetts. Newt Gingrich won 29 percent of the early vote, followed by former Sen. Rick Santorum with 12 percent support and Rep. Ron Paul with 8 percent.
Florida Republican officials have confirmed that more than 600,000 Florida Republicans have already voted, amounting to between 30 to 40 percent of the total primary electorate. Among the remaining 64 percent of voters, Romney leads with 39 percent, according to the ARG poll.
Overall, Romney leads with 43 percent support while Gingrich garners 31 percent. Santorum wins 13 percent support, and Paul gets 9 percent.
Polls opened at 7 a.m. on Monday, and if Romney were to hold his vote, Gingrich would have to receive 51 percent of the votes cast today in order to tie the former governor at 43 percent, according to ARG.
Appealing to early voters was a major part of the Romney campaign's Florida strategy, the Tampa Bay Times reports. As soon as the state in December made available a list of voters requesting absentee ballots, the campaign started reaching out to those voters. In addition to contacting them by mail and phone, some were invited to participate in a series of tele-town halls.
As Florida votes, Gingrich keeps fighting
A viewers' guide to the Florida primary
How Romney stole Gingrich's voice in Florida
A viewers' guide to the Florida primary
How Romney stole Gingrich's voice in Florida
A viewers guide to the Florida primary
There's a lot to watch in Florida: two million votes are expected across a state with a varied Republican electorate. As they're being tallied up Tuesday evening, here's a viewers guide.
As a result, overall, about half of the Republican primary vote figures to come from the central part of the state (Orlando and environs) plus the panhandle. Tampa and Ft. Myers are another third, and Miami/Palm Beach about one-fifth (although in a close race, of course, perhaps a pivotal one.) In 2008 Mitt Romney lost the Florida primary in part because he was nearly doubled-up by John McCain in Miami and lost the Tampa region. A key to watch now is how well he does around Miami and the Gold Coast - he's polling well with more moderate Republicans and a good performance in the south could put him over the top.
With its large an diversified electorate, Florida tests whether candidates can succeed across many different parts of the GOP's base: from the cultural conservatives in the panhandle, to the moderates who swung this primary to John McCain last time; retirees along the coasts and younger families in once-booming, Republican-leaning suburbs and exurbs, and, of course, the Tea Party activists who helped lead Rick Scott and Marco Rubio to wins here in 2010.
The tallies: Where the votes are
The winner will need to perform at least moderately well across a number of distinct regions and metro areas. Miami-Dade will of course be the largest county reporting Tuesday (perhaps 150,000 of those) but Florida's vote geography shifts a little bit northward in a GOP primary as compared to a General; a lot of votes come from areas Tampa, central and northward, where Republicans are more abundant.
On the registration rolls, Republicans dominate along the Florida coasts - many of which have been fast-growing, often wealthier counties, stretching along the Atlantic east of Orlando and on the Gulf Coast from Sarasota down to Ft. Myers. The panhandle, with its heavy military and retiree population and southern roots, boasts very heavy GOP registration percentages on the western side, as does the Jacksonville area on the Atlantic coast - that city grew rapidly in the 2000's, expanding outward, with exurban and suburbanites that tilted heavily to the GOP in General elections.
Types of voters: A wide array
As a closed primary, this is a battle just among Republicans - no registered independents here to sway the outcome. As in the party's ranks nationwide, self-described conservatives are the bulk of Republican primary voters in Florida - they were six in ten in 2008's presidential contest. If (and, importantly, really only if) the election is close, then moderates could be a difference maker. John McCain actually lost conservatives in 2008 to Mitt Romney - but won moderates by a decisive enough margin (43 to 21) than they put him over the top.
If you're looking at regions as the votes come in, the northern part of Florida profiles in many ways more in line with what we see in other southern states: more conservatives, more evangelicals. As you move south in the state, historically you'd find relatively more moderates: they were less than one in five voters in the panhandle and regions above Orlando in 2008, but that rose to about one-quarter among Republicans in the regions around Miami. Emphasis on "relative," though: conservatives still dominate everywhere.
Based on polling and vote patterns from the last few primaries, if it is to be a good night for Newt Gingrich that would be first characterized by strong vote totals in the panhandle and around Jacksonville; without that, it might be an uphill climb for him.
Meanwhile, after Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Florida now offers a notable Hispanic vote. In 2008 Latinos were 12 percent of the GOP primary electorate and the bulk of them were Cuban, specifically (7 percent overall of the electorate was Cuban.) In a close race that could be determinative, and Romney and Gingrich have this week gone hard after that vote. But there are longer-range implications here: Republicans are keeping an eye on Florida's Latino vote for the General election, too, in this swing state. In 2008 Barack Obama carried the Latino vote in Florida. While for years that vote was defined by the Cuban American vote, Obama's success was driven in part by voters of Puerto Rican and Central American backgrounds who have been among the boom that took place in the central part of the state over the last ten to twenty years.
And keep an eye on the Tea Party vote. Florida was a big success for Tea Party backers in the last cycle. This time around a third of the GOP electorate considers themselves part of the movement, in a recent Qunnipiac poll. Tea Partiers propelled Marco Rubio to the Senate in 2010 (and pushed aside the once-favored Charlie Crist) and Rick Scott won narrow contests in both the GOP Governor's primary, and the General, by running with the mantle of outsider. This year, South Carolina's strongest Tea Party voters helped propel Gingrich to his win - the former speaker got more than twice as many of their votes (48 percent to 21percent) as Romney. In New Hampshire it had been a different tale: Romney carried conservatives and Tea Party backers.
In recent pre-election polls, Romney has been doing at least well enough with Tea Party backers to build a lead. If he can replicate that Tuesday, getting strong - even if not majority - Tea Party support, that will be a good sign for him.
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